As the expiration of BLACKPINK's contract in August draws near, YG Entertainment (hereafter YG) is once again grappling with the issue of contract renewal.

Having debuted in 2016, BLACKPINK's exclusive contract with YG is set to end this coming August. On July 12th, the YG stock price dropped by more than 8% during trading following news of uncertainty surrounding member Lisa's contract renewal.

This isn't the first time that rumors of contract non-renewal have led to a drop in YG's stock price. Every time there have been rumors about the group leaving YG, the stock price has fluctuated. This illustrates just how integral BLACKPINK is to YG and the extent of public attention on the direction BLACKPINK will take after their contract ends in August.

BIGBANG, who have previously propped up YG, effectively ceased activities after releasing a mini-album last year, with all members, including G-Dragon, ending their contracts. As a result, YG's dependence on BLACKPINK has grown stronger than ever. In the third quarter of 2022, BLACKPINK accounted for 90% of YG's album sales revenue. If their contract renewal falls through, YG could face a significant revenue gap.

BLACKPINK, the only girl group to have undertaken a world tour of 1.5 million people and served as a headliner at the American Coachella festival, is considered globally successful, more so than any other K-pop girl group. However, since the end of last year, signals of contract renewal issues have turned the group into both the company's pillar and risk.

There are currently three scenarios being discussed regarding BLACKPINK. The first is that all four members-Jennie, Rosé, Lisa, and Jisoo-renew their contract with YG. From YG's perspective, they absolutely cannot lose the BLACKPINK members, and there is a possibility of a renewal on better terms than before. The members also hinted at a contract renewal during a world tour concert held at Singapore National Stadium last month. Rosé said, "Thank you for supporting our music. BLACKPINK isn't going anywhere," to the cheers of fans. Some interpret this as Rosé trying to alleviate fans' worries over BLACKPINK's contract renewal.

However, it's not entirely certain that everyone will renew. YG has made no official comment about the contract renewal other than saying it's "under discussion." Speculation has arisen that the confirmed debut of the rookie girl group Baby Monsters in September is a plan made with a potential BLACKPINK contract failure in mind. Many in the music industry believe that full contract renewal would be difficult due to numerous obstacles.

The second possibility is a move to THEBLACKLABEL, which has a deep connection with BLACKPINK. THEBLACKLABEL, led by music producer Teddy, a former member of the group One Time, is a YG affiliate label. Since Teddy has produced BLACKPINK's hit songs since their debut and has deep ties with other artists and producers under THEBLACKLABEL, there's a high possibility BLACKPINK may choose it to continue their activities in a more comfortable and freer atmosphere than YG. Notably, BIGBANG's Taeyang recently left YG after 16 years to sign a contract with THEBLACKLABEL. In a recent collaboration, Lisa has also shown her close relationship with Taeyang, who had moved to THEBLACKLABEL.

The last option is individual pursuits, where each member signs with a company of their choice. Some might stay with YG while others might transfer. This is realistically the most likely scenario.

Each member's income has risen to a level comparable to a medium-sized business. All four members have proven their worth with solo albums, and Jisoo's development as an actress is also expected.

They're also actively promoting various brands, and their individual earnings exceed their group earnings, so it's natural for them to want to focus on individual activities during the remaining period of their careers. Especially Lisa, the only foreign member from Thailand, is hugely popular in Southeast Asia and rumored to be receiving lucrative offers from various global companies.

Unlike in the past when a group's disbandment usually followed the termination of an exclusive contract, more groups are recently opting to focus on individual activities like acting, variety shows, and solo music after leaving their agencies, while still releasing albums as a group.

The release of Girls' Generation's 15th-anniversary album last year is a prime example. BLACKPINK could also sign with a company that can highlight each member's individual strengths, or they could establish their own agencies and release albums as BLACKPINK without any secondary activities. However, for this to happen, smooth negotiations with YG, who holds the trademark for the team, will be necessary.

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